From: "NPD DisplaySearch News" <news@displaysearch.com>
Date: Jun 18, 2012 5:06 AM
Subject: 4K×2K LCD TV Panel Opportunities and Challenges
To: <john.sokol@gmail.com>
4K×2K LCD TV Panel Opportunities and Challenges
As published in the DisplaySearch Monitor, June 2012
By David Hsieh
It's always a goal for LCD TV panel makers to add new features to panel product specifications. New features stimulate the replacement cycle and increase demand. In recent years, new features have included high color gamut, 3D, LED backlight, slim type, ultra-slim bezel, 120 Hz/240 Hz/480 Hz frame rate driving, fast response time, and high brightness. However, adding features does not always add value:
- End users do not always see value in new features, so they are not always willing to pay a premium. For example, most end users do not feel a need for high color gamut. There are two reasons for this: Broadcasting systems regulate the color gamut of the content, and preferences for color saturation vary widely. Therefore, high color gamut is not always better.
- Some new features are nice to have but are not "must haves," so end users are not willing to spend much extra for them. 3D is a good example. Watching a 3D movie in a theater is a fantastic viewing experience, but watching 3D at home with the glasses and the small amount of cost-effective 3D content available mean that 2D is satisfying enough for most viewers.
- Instead of "spec up," more and more end users are looking to "spec down" for budgetary reasons. Lower but acceptable panel brightness now prevails, as it helps to reduce backlight cost. Meanwhile, as analyzed in the May 09, 2012 DisplaySearch Monitor article "Direct LED TV Selling Better than Edge LED TV," the cost effective direct type LED–backlight LCD TV is doing well in sell-through results. While its form factor is not slim, some end users care more about how an ultra-slim bezel looks from the front.
For all these reasons, LCD TV panel and set makers are wondering what new features will add value for end users and motivate another replacement cycle. The answer is elusive.
Higher Resolution: The Next Added Value?
Many people believe that ultra-high 3840 × 2160 definition (UD), also known as 4K×2K, will be a meaningful value-added feature. 4K×2K has four times as many pixels as FHD (1920 × 1080), which is the current prevailing resolution for LCD TV panels.
- Smart phones and tablet PCs have proven that end users enjoy higher resolution—in fact, the higher the better. People are accustomed to very high resolution in their mobile devices, and will start to expect the same in their TV.
- Because LCD TVs are still mainly used for watching, consumers will perceive very high resolution as a direct benefit to watching, unlike other new features (such as smart, connected, or 3D TV, and LED backlight).
- The best quality video is recognized as vivid with no difference between reality and screen, and the higher the resolution, the more vivid the content.
- When people grow accustomed to high resolution, it's very hard for them to return to a lower resolution.
- It makes sense to watch 3D programs on 4K×2K LCD TVs because the impact of the downgrade in resolution due to the 3D effect is not as severe. 3D technology halves resolution on LCD TVs. With 4K×2K, even after the 3D downgrade, the resolution is full HD, falling from 3840 × 2160 to 1920 × 1080.
- For ultra-large LCD TVs, such as 60-80", pixels are so big that they are visible in FHD. Therefore 4K×2K is recognized as necessary on very large TVs.
Panel Makers Developing 4K×2K
Even with these reasons, the market outlook for 4K×2K is still unclear due to TV broadcasting bandwidth limitations. Still, LCD TV panel makers have developed many 4K×2K panels, as the following figure shows.
Table 1 4K×2K Ultra High Definition LCD TV Panel Development
| Maker | Size | Native | Panel | 3D | 3D Technology | MP (Estimate) |
| AUO | 65" | 3840×2160 | Oxide TFT | Yes | Lenticular lens | Q2'12 |
| 55" | 3840×2160 | A-Si TFT | Yes | Lenticular lens (naked eye) | Now | |
| LG Display | 84" | 3840×2160 | Oxide TFT | Yes | FPR (film pattern retarder) | Q1'12- |
| Samsung | 70" | 3840×2160 | Oxide TFT |
|
| Q2'12 |
| 70" | 3840×2160 | Oxide TFT | Yes | 240 Hz, Shutter glass | Q2'12 | |
| 82" | 3840×2160 |
|
|
|
| |
| Sharp | 64" | 4096×2160 |
|
|
| EOL |
| 60" | 3840×2160 | Oxide TFT, |
|
| 2012 | |
| Chimei | 56" | 3840×2160 |
| No |
| Now |
| 50" | 3840×2160 | A-Si TFT | 120 Hz |
| Q4'12 | |
| 65" | 3840×2160 | A-Si TFT | 120 Hz |
| Q4'12 |
Source: DisplaySearch China Smart TV & Smart Display Conference
- Most panel makers have been working on 55"+ panels for 4K×2K. This is because panel makers target high-end and very large screen markets.
- Most panel makers are implementing oxide TFT for 4K×2K resolution. Because of the higher electron mobility of oxide, it's easier to design with a smaller pixel; therefore more pixels can be implanted onto the glass substrate. However, the oxide TFT process requires a 6-8 photomask process, compared to the 4-5 photomask process for a-Si TFT. This will affect capacity.
- Chimei Innolux is planning to use a-Si TFT, rather than oxide TFT. In theory, this is workable and Chimei Innolux can save lots of surplus cost for new photomasks and maintain a better yield rate.
- Sharp is focusing on 4K×2K and calling it Super Hi-Vision, as analyzed in the May 10, 2012 DisplaySearch Monitor article "Sharp's Leading TV Panel Technologies."
- AUO is currently the only panel maker that has commercialized a 4K×2K product. The product is a 55" 4K×2K LCD TV with glasses-free 3D and a powerful video driving engine (Toshiba's REGZA), shown below. There's also a face tracking feature, which should assist users who choose to video chat in high resolution. It's said that LGE and Vizio are also interested in launching a 4K×2K LCD TV in the North America market later this year.
Figure 1 Toshiba's 55" 4K×2K LCD TV with AUO's Panel
Source: Toshiba
4K×2K Ecosystem
The biggest concern for 4K×2K remains the ecosystem. Currently the TV ecosystem relies on the bandwidth of broadcasting and transmission. For content providers, it will be harder to achieve very high resolution as the cost of production, post-production, storage, and data transmission will be very high.
Content is also an issue for 4K×2K TVs. At the DisplaySearch China Smart TV & Smart Display Conference, Chimei Innolux used a slide to illustrate the current 4K×2K ecosystem status (shown below).
Figure 2 4K×2K Ecosystem Status
Source: Chimei Innolux
- Camera: Commercial cameras are available, and some are already reaching 8K×4K. These professional cameras are very expensive, but some camera companies such as Sony or JVC plan to introduce a 4K×2K camera for general consumers.
- Content: For content providers, the high cost of post-production is a concern. A 4K×2K program is estimated to cost 5-6 times more than HD.
- Broadcasting: NHK and BBC plan to use 4K×2K or even 8K×4K broadcasting for the 2012 Olympics in London. This experiment will explore the challenges to the growth of 4K×2K broadcasting.
- Coding/De-Coding Standard: H264 seems to be sufficient for 4K×2K. The new generation H265 will be ready by 2013. At the same time, enhancing compression will further reduce the bottleneck of 4K×2K signal transmission. Also, there are some up-scaling solutions to convert HD and FHD signals to 4K, such as QDEO.
- BD Capacity: With the enormous amount of data for 4K×2K, storage and transmission are big challenges. For storage, dual-layer Blu-ray DVDs can provide 50 GB capacity, and some can even be 200 GB with current compression technology. DVD makers are studying how to increase compression ratio.
- BD Player: Blu-ray disc players also need to support 4K×2K.
- HDMI: The HDMI 1.4a standard supports 4K×2K, but HEVC (High Efficient Video Coding) will be better.
- Bandwidth: ADSL and fiber have achieved 100 Mbps per second. However, it's still time consuming to transmit 4K×2K data. For example, a 3-hour 4K×2K movie equals 3 terabytes of data, which requires 200 Blu-ray discs.
4K×2K Panel Challenges
4K×2K LCD TV panels are a big challenge for TFT LCD process yield rate and stability. In the current TFT LCD process, the yield rate and reliability of HD and FHD do differ much. However, when the pixel count quadruples, the yield rate will fall significantly. Meanwhile, the higher resolution means panel transmittance will be reduced because there are more pixels on the substrate. As analyzed in the TFT LCD Process Roadmap Report, there are many new technologies needed for this kind of ultra-high definition:
- High resolution photo lithography (high resolution patterning)
- SHA (super high aperture) ratio
- High mobility backplanes (such as oxide TFT or microcrystalline silicon)
- Copper (Cu) metallization
- BM (black matrix) width reduction
- The EE (electronics engineering) panel design: data/scan driving, input format compatibility, and value-added features including 4K up-conversion, 3D, and local dimming backlight
With all of these opportunities and challenges, the DisplaySearch Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report is forecasting that 4K×2K TV will account for 22% of all 50"+ FPD TVs in 2017.
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